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I like Kotkin. Kotkin is our friend.

The regime is strong but brittle, that seems to me to be a contradiction.

I feel politically suppressed by the political parties we have in our democratic system in the USA. As you say, they can screw up everything...

Mr. Kotkin always has something insightful to say, he is great!

Yet again, the view has distorted the reality, for this highly educated professor. Like many comments leading up to and during this conflict, his comments encourage violence not diplomacy. Falsely claiming Putin as an imperialist with aspirations to add all of Ukraine and march towards the annexation of other European countries. Not once has Putin or Russia given any indication of having that view. This is not a misperception it's a flat out lie. To ignorant people listening who cling to speculation, the professor still falsely claims to know what Putin wants to do, like many he makes declarative statements from both sides of his mouth, projecting Russia as weak, ripe for US, W European interference in the name of liberal democratic free market principles. He does this over and over.

Stephen Kotkin: Automatic thumbs up 🎉🎉🎉

Winning the peace with Putin by allowing him to keep annexed territory is just a wonderful gift to your brutal invader. He can then build up his economy over the next few years, but for Russia that means their war economy. Weapons and arms would also be built up to ensure outright victory on the next attempt to Russify the whole of Ukraine. Putin had made it clear on many occasions that he does not recognise Ukraine as a country, but that it can only be regarded as a part of Russia as it was.

29:01 I do not understand in what sense the present day West lacks illiberal, but anti-communist regimes. Even if we lack them, it seems like it would be easy--via diplomacy and propaganda--to turn them against the Reds.

Brilliant, as ususal.

Stephen provides the best thought out political analysis of both the situation in Ukraine and the global realities that I have ever heard…….should be in every President’s think tanks……..

Posen is trying to sell a narrative that won't explain the GFC but Pettis' theory does. Chinese underconsumption causes excess reserve accumulation and purchase of agency MBS, pushing CDOs. It's that simple.

A great interview!

Humorous to hear "russia" and "deal" in the same sentence.

Insightful interview from FA as always

There was never any real peace treaty on the table. What Kotkin doesn't talk about is that Russia is a trickster, it had a number of peace treaties with Ukraine and didn't respect any single one of them. Any such treaty would bind Ukraine, but it wouldn't bind Russia in any way, because they don't care about what's written in any of these treaties. Russia would just catch its breath and keep fighting. Knowing all of this very well, Kotkin still decides to lie into our faces.

If russia does not want to become the vassal of CCP, then why isn't the west enable russia to join the NATO?

With due respect to Kotkin, why does je not acknoledge the role US businesses in the name of capitalism destroyed the economy of russia after the wall fell.

We the people….in my travels over my life and in talking to the people in many countries without exception all want to be safe, housed, free (in thought, spiritually) have education for their children. Where this all ‘goes south’ is when political and religious ideals and human lust for power and greed is imposed on the populace. The west must be strong in projection of the principles that uphold those of we the people’. The principle of osmosis although slow should take over. No one wants to live in tyranny.

Since when capitulation is seen as ending the war "on favourable terms"???

The Ukraine conflict is one of ‘global rules based order’ against fascism. If Ukraine loses the war, and gains by the invader are ceded (even if not recognised) to the invader the rules based order loses and dictatorships/authoritarians will be emboldened. We need a strong NATO/AUKUS and west in general to thwart bully tactics and invasion of sovereign nations and international recognised borders. Ukraine must win the ground war and winning is defined as the return of pre-2014 borders.- no less. We (the global coalition of countries subscribing to a rules based order future) must partner (and we are). The US is a senior partner. History tells us that appeasement and an isolationist US leads to global conflict. This coalition is in all our interests. Europe and UK are stepping up. Strategic ambiguity is necessary. “if we give the Ukrainians what is needed to win, the Ukrainians will finish the job”. Slave Ukraini.

Stopped listening after “terrific victories” of Biden admin and complete ignorance of the fact that ALL weapons were delayed or never given with stupid excuses. With such fake experts pushing russian agenda I completely understand why the West is failing this war with hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians dying as we speak. Don’t forget that Ukraine was disarmed by the US (Clinton, Obama admins) when it was actually the bully russia that must have been disarmed to never threaten peace in Europe ever again.

The problem with these kinds of analyses is that they are based on the notion that India is not mature enough to make their choices based on some fundamental worldviews and its own strategic position in the world. India has to chart its own course and in a self assured, confident way - why is that so unnatural.

📍36:17 2📍 30:16

What is the difference between Iran and Saudi Arabia?

Russias murky future makes the future of the western states not brighter. Europe is driven down by the sanctions. In Ukraine are not even "fake" elections possible. In Vietnam the USA would have won the peace mor easily without or with less war. The alliance with the Prime Minister Ngô Đình Diệm of South Vietnam was a mistake. Ho Chi Min was studied in France and he was at the beginning more an liberation figther than a communist. Ngô Đình Diệm wanted perpetuate the colonial regime of the French, who were forced to retire from their colonies in Southeast Asia. Ngô Đình Diệm was the worst Proxy that the USA could have chosen: brutal to the people, undermining the US-Forces with drugs, proliferation of the US-weaponery etc.. Finaly the USA/CIA had to get rid of him. But also his death could not save the situation. Ho Chi Min searched first help from the USA, what was refused because of France, the colonial power and ally of the USA in WWII. The liberation motivation was higher than the "red fear" in Vietnam and the movement get help from willing partners, from the USSR and from China. So the Vietnamese liberation movement became the Vietcong. I am only an average old men in Europe and not an Expert. But I think, Wolodymyr Selenskyj ist 100% the wrong person, more like Ngô Đình Diệm than a democratic leader and Ukraine shares no western value at all. Alexej Nawalny was a discovery of MI6, a person with charisma. But he was an right right extremist and to give him a new image failed - in Russia, in the West it was successful. Fazit: the Western sanctions against Russia and the Western russophobia helped Putin, to get rid of the oligarchs, to stregthen national cohesion and the Russian industrial base. The western destruction of marriage, family and traditional value disagree most of the average people, even in the west ist cancel cultur and wokism accepted only by the elites and only if it serves political aims. US-President Biden was most succesful in destroying the worldwide believe in western values. During the Vietnam War: If "we" do not stop the Vietcong in Asia, we will have it sure in California and the wohl West! That believed nobody, at least they, who preached such nonsense. Putin or Russia will have the Ukraine as buffer zone to NATO - not more, not less. Propaganda or not propaganda: Russia is the weakest of the actual great powers USA, China und soon also India. NATO is an existential threat for Russia and all Russians, also for Putins political enemys. Would Nawalny had given Crimea etc. back to Selenskyj or Ukraine? Never. Will the most Crimeans rejoin Uraine again and live under the suppression of their language, culture and political discrimination? Never. Triple wages and pension are better for the average men then to die for NATO expension. The USA got used to solve every "problem" in the whole world by military force and overtrow unliked regimes without conseqences. In my opinion this times are over for the next hundred years.

who knew Joe Pesci was so knowledgeable on Russia? brilliant stuff!

1. NGOs banned are the ones which were being funded by CIA and other deep states to act against Indian interests. So u r missing the point. 2. India sees Russia as a balancing power and needs to be strong to balance east and west. So India sees itself a part of partnership to govern Artic waters and it's oil resources and to have natural gas lines to India. 3. Russia has NEVER vetoed India in UN 4. US has attacked multiple countries across Mideast, west Asia and doesn't human rights come into picture there? 5. US scholars must understand that they can't police India while they have gone against human rights all of past 100 years. 5. India needs to become strong culturally, economically and politically for the best this world needs. Because we don't see world as a binary. We see it a place where everybody has a role to play and are equal.

The West wants Russia. Always has. The West can twist any argument but its goal is Russia. Why? Because, just because. Thats the Wests MO. Any peruse of history will teach that one consistant fact.

Let me know what the U.S. does when China reports plans for a military alliance with Mexico.

Turns out this guy can predict the future!

The World is a MAD HOUSE now, we say Putin is a criminal and if he come to a European country will be arrested and put to trial, and in the other hand the thinking brains say " do treaties with them, do deals with them and win peace" what a hell is this World will end to?! Russia WILL NOT be trusty EVER, let Putin and others see that this work and the humanity will end in decades to come, so arm Ukraine now and end this! No more Chamberlains!

Outstanding discussion 4:51

Nice piece. Stephen is sharp!

Budapest memorandum. Ukraine was really stupid to listen to Bill Clinton. This would not have happened if they had their nukes. I'm sure there are Ukrainians working on building new Nuclear Weapons. I wouldn't be surprised of a dirty bomb being delivered to Moscow if it does something stupid like blowing up nuclear power station. What do we do then?

I totally disagree with his view on the spring ‘22 negotiations. Whatever Russia is saying and “promising “ is a lie. You can’t negotiate with the person whose only intention is to exterminate you. Do not be naive. Russians are laughing and calling Americans stupid behind your backs for they play you like a puppet. Not very pleasant words to hear, but this is a true words. To call someone a Liberal is worst offend in Russia. All their great culture is nothing more than so called “Potyomkin village”. A facade with nothing inside.

The Ukrainians understand full well that victory means regime collapse in moscow. Thats why they're targetting the petroleum sector which undergirds the longevity of putin's attrition strategy.

100%, the west shies away from putting pressure on the regime, HUGE mistake

Keep in mind that Kotkin is state department's historian just like Anne Applebaum is. These are mostly narratives and opinions, not dry facts of the matter. This has nothing to do with real life, especially if you put yourself in the shoes of the other. Navalny was never viable alternative. Your "democratically elected" regimes do engage in assassinations and overthrow of governments (often siding with authoritarian regimes) through meddling and in all sorts of different ways. He's dishonestly pushing narratives. Simple as that. It's still an interesting listen as he's telling us some of the stuff state department can't tell us that they're considering or planning or expecting or hoping for...

Superb interview.

Stephen, your so-called armistice fails to appreciate that the Ukrainians living under Russian occupation are subject to such horrors that no human can conceive of. Bucha, Irpin, Chernigov, Izium, Mariupol. I appreciate your thinking that occupation is harmless but that is absolutely not so.

I suspect that the Ukrainians were well aware that there is no medium term battlefield victory. They probably were hoping that there were oligarchs willing to overthrow Putin if they could embarrassing him enough. They didn’t count on Putin financializing the war effort so everyone from top to bottom got a piece of the action.

standing on the outside looking in NATO is getting outplayed, and Sanctions are creating an economic superpower in BRICS Right under NATO's toe, the EU America is spending squillions poking the bear, While the bear is only spending a few bags of spuds

Very balanced commentary coming from a senior military leader who thinks of how to pacify the enemies after their loss.

Zero on the crucial background to the Ukraine conflict especially from 2014 on. WHY? The US brought it on as detailed by Stephen Cohen and John Mearsheimer. The US and MSM propaganda simply states that 'Russia invaded Ukraine without any provocation'. Perhaps that is why it is not discussed by SK who is always ignoring or excusing and downplaying the dissapointments of our so called Liberal Order. There is very little left of the Liberal traditions in the West, but capitalism has expanded and provides a basis for agreements and mutual ties and arrangements that could incentivise peace and greatly reduce the risks of war.

Remarkable! Brilliant! Sane! What a fantastic interview. Great question's. Thank you .

Nearly everyone in the UK today do not see how serious the war in Ukraine is. The war could very easily end up as an “all in” war because the stakes could not be higher. The outcome will determine the future of Europe. Should Russia win, the UK will be affected badly as from Russia and Putin’s point of view, the UK will be held accountable for the loss of thousands of his fellow comrades whilst the rest of Europe comes to terms with a new all powerful Russia with huge resources. The UK separated from the rest of Europe because of Brexit which was sold to the people with lies and deception. Britain cannot and will not allow Russia to win. John Mearsheimer has the view that Russia cannot lose this war. Britain cannot lose this war and that is why if the Ukrainians hold out, then this could very easily lead to an all out war with the West. But whether most countries in Europe will follow is open to debate. Every day that passes sees an escalation of the war…

Excellent discussion.

Very interesting discussion, subscribed!

Because of Russia's demographics, they don't have a bottomless supply of manpower anymore.

Mr. Kotkin puts things in perspective like no other..dixi!